New York Times editorialist, Thomas Edsel, is always a good read to try to understand political and demographic forces in America.
I think there are two big theories of how the country
divides. One is that racial resentment is the biggest indicator of Republican
loyalty. And the other is that economic prosperity and higher educational level are
the biggest factor of Democratic loyalty.
Both are significant, but the balance seems to tip toward race:
“This factor,
racial resentment … does a much, much better job of explaining our current
political divisions than education polarization.”
So,
does the Party of George Wallace ride again?
Yes, to some degree (I do not believe that all Republicans are racists,
but racial resentment is the biggest predictor of Republican Party loyalty)
What about
education levels?
"The divide is
not just educational levels, although the more educated are more likely to be
Democrat and the less educated are more likely to be Republican. However…in contradiction to the education
divide thesis, non-college white people who are not racially resentful have
become more Democratic, while college-educated white people who are racially
resentful have become more Republican."
Maybe a
lot of it has to do with the diversity of where you live, and thus the exposure
one has to other races:
“Republican districts,” they write… “are some of the least
ethnically diverse districts. But voters within these districts have diverse
policy views, particularly on economic issues. Democratic districts are some of
the most ethnically diverse districts.”
So, it seems that in Republican districts voters
have a variety of policy views but unite around racial resentments. Ouch.
How to solve?
Race mixing looks like the best way forward. Meet each other. See each other as fellow humans. We fear what we don’t know. Or so it seems to me.
