There has long been a danger that the United States could have an armed conflict with either Russia or China. And the potential for catastrophic escalation would be very real with all sides being nuclear powers.
Russia is making all kinds of false pretenses for invading Ukraine pretending that it is defending itself against a dangerous and aggressive military force of NATO. Of course NATO was always about defending against Soviet and now Russian invasion, not about invading Russia. But Putin and his oligarchs are trying to re-establish the Balkan states as part of Russian dominance, just as they were part of the defunct Soviet Union.
I have every hope that Russia will see that an invasion would be too costly and turn away, but counting on Putin to soften or act wisely is not a safe bet.
But, if Russia invades, will China see that as a sufficient distraction to finally invade and crush Taiwan and officially make it part of China? Russia has always seen Ukraine as part of Russia and China has always seen Taiwan as part of China. As I recall, way back in 1960 Kennedy and Nixon debated what to do about defending Formosa (now Taiwan) against Communist Chinese attack.
We have enough on our hands with an uncooperative public about protecting us against COVID and the MAGA cult of violent extremists. And both Russia and China may be seeing this as an opportune time to take over a neighboring country by force.
I hope and pray that they do not try that.
