I think 35% will vote for Trump no matter what. That is his real base. That is the core Republican base and it always has been and always will be, I believe.
The current Trump approval rating is about 43%. That means about 8% of the people who currently support him are not really his hard-core no-matter-what base. 46% actually voted for him in 2016. That’s about 11% who actually voted for him are not his hard core base.
The current Trump approval rating is about 43%. That means about 8% of the people who currently support him are not really his hard-core no-matter-what base. 46% actually voted for him in 2016. That’s about 11% who actually voted for him are not his hard core base.
I think there has been a change in Donald Trump ever since the Mueller report and now especially since the Mueller testimony in Congress. The change is that Donald Trump thinks he has gotten away with it. The Mueller report and the Mueller testimony said there was no criminal conspiracy. And although neither the report nor the testimony exonerated Trump on the question of obstruction of justice, there has not been it outcry from the country that included Republicans to prosecute impeachment.
So I think that Trump feels freshly empowered to go for his reelection with no holds barred. And since the only real issue that Donald Trump has ever cared about is white supremacy that seems to be the issue that he is going all in on.
It used to be that the Republicans used racist dog whistles and talked about things like law and order or states rights or welfare queens or the menace of drug gangs. Those issues were not exactly subtle references to minorities. But they were disguised just enough that people could vote for a Republican and pretend to themselves or others that race was not their issue, but rather their issue was law and order, drugs, or tax cuts, or fiscal austerity, or balancing the budget, etc. So they could think of themselves as good people caring about issues other than white supremacy and racism. Indeed, many just put up with the racist appeals that did not appeal to them and voted on the basis of conservative economic or social issues.
However, now Trump is in full out white supremacist mode. He attacks four women of color and tells them they should go back to where they came from – which of course everyone understands they should go back to their brown countries even though they are all actually from America and are American citizens.
And then he attacks Elijah Cummings and says that his state Maryland is a rat infested disgusting place and said "No human being would want to live there." No human being? Black and brown people are not real human beings? So there is no longer any question about who Trump thinks real human beings are - white people are real human beings in Trump's twisted mind.
And then he attacks Elijah Cummings and says that his state Maryland is a rat infested disgusting place and said "No human being would want to live there." No human being? Black and brown people are not real human beings? So there is no longer any question about who Trump thinks real human beings are - white people are real human beings in Trump's twisted mind.
White supremacists certainly hear this toxin and are thrilled. So the 35% that will always vote for Donald Trump knows they are speaking to them. What about that 8% to 11% that voted for Trump or still approve of Trump who are not white supremacists. Who are perhaps Republican out of habit, or ideological belief but who do not think of themselves as racist or white supremacist? Who might not even be white? The cover is blown. How do they support this overtly white supremacist and racist presidential candidate now?
Oh, you say to yourself, this is just a moment in time and he won’t be saying these kind of things for very long. And he will get smarter as the election cycle continues. Are you kidding? Trump will never stop being Trump. Trump has always been a white supremacist. Trump has always been a racist. And Trump is sure that that is why people voted for him.
And indeed, political scientists and sociologists struggled to understand the Trump election, and they studied many options that could explain his victory - the economic dispossessed and forgotten voted for Trump? The lower classes ignored by the elite so they voted for Trump? Racists voted for Trump? The unfortunate result of a many very good scientific studies was that the biggest predictor for a trump voter was racial resentment (racism).
And indeed, political scientists and sociologists struggled to understand the Trump election, and they studied many options that could explain his victory - the economic dispossessed and forgotten voted for Trump? The lower classes ignored by the elite so they voted for Trump? Racists voted for Trump? The unfortunate result of a many very good scientific studies was that the biggest predictor for a trump voter was racial resentment (racism).
Trump knows this even if Democrats think they’re supposed to be trying to come up with programs for farmers and abandoned manufacturing sectors - he knows his real draw is racism. And I think Trump will become more and more overtly white supremacist and racist as he campaigns for president. And I think that he is going to lose much of that 8 to 11% who currently support or voted for him because they do not want to be associated with that slime.
Trump will always be Trump. He did not win the popular vote last time, he got 46.1% of the popular vote, and he lost by 2.1%. His result in 2020 could well end up being not much more than that core support of 35% as the non-racists finally peal away and turn their back on him.
Or at least so I hope. I hope that my conservative friends who do not want to be associated with the white supremacy and racism of this president will, like me, will hold their nose and vote for a giraffe rather than for Donald J Trump in 2020.
