Mitt Romney has a very big problem ahead of him, it seems to
me. That problem is the Republican
Convention.
He campaigned as neither fish nor fowl. That is, he spoke like a hard core right
winger during the primaries, but no one believed that he actually was one. He gathered more votes than the real hard
core candidates, and I believe that the basis of his victory was probably the
fact that the primary voters wanted a more moderate candidate than the other
more extremists on the primaries tickets.
But almost all of his words pandered to the hard right
wing. And the convention will likely be
filled with true believers who will exert a strong pull to the right. So, how does Romney do what he needs to do to
become president? That is, how does he
use the big stage of the Republican convention to address the nation, most
especially the undecided voters and moderates, while standing in a giant hall
filled with Tea Party and Evangelical and Libertarian faithfuls?
This Republican convention could have the same problem that
the Democratic convention of 1984 in San
Francisco did.
The convention delegates themselves could overwhelm the candidate’s message.
After the ’84 convention, the Republicans mocked Mondale and
the “San Francisco Democrats” because of the presentation of the San Francisco convention
itself showed intensely dedicated hard left wing activists exuberantly pushing
for hard core left wing policies. Who
Mondale actually was got swallowed up by the message of the convention
itself. Romney could well get swallowed
up by the same dynamic in Tampa
this year as the delegates on the floor become the message rather than the
backdrop for the candidate.
If Romney just speaks to the delegates and tells them all
the Tea Party and Social Conservative and Libertarian things that get them
excited and aroused, it is possible that he will alienate those he needs in the
center to win in November. If he speaks
more to the center, the reaction on the floor and among the Limbaugh/Beck/extremist
commentariat could kill him amongst the base.
I don’t know that this man has the political skills to speak
to both the extremes and the center at the same time, and if he chooses one
over the other, it could be the end for him.
He hasn’t shown much in the way of political dexterity so far, and I can’t
say I expect it at the end of the month in Tampa .
